Understanding the estimates

Independent experimental analysis, not official current winning probabilities.

A custom model

We combine reported prize information, game age and observed changes over time to estimate remaining-ticket scenarios. The calculations run on our server. We review recent observations to assess stability and forecast error, and model revisions are deliberate versioned changes.

What a prize row means

Each row uses an actual prize offered by that ticket and counts that amount or more. Comparisons can include games whose next actual prize is higher than your selection. Smaller estimated “1 in” numbers rank ahead, but that ranking depends on uncertain ticket estimates.

Reference odds and uncertainty

The launch reference summarizes the same cumulative prize event using original prize counts and published odds. It is not a daily measurement of unsold inventory. Reported remaining prizes can include sold-but-unclaimed tickets, delayed claims or corrections. Scenario ranges are not confidence intervals, and our model has not been independently validated against actual ticket-level sales.

Changes and missing estimates

Source corrections or a new model version may revise an estimate upward or downward. Unexplained source changes or an inconsistent estimate can place a game under review. We do not silently force numbers to decline. When information is unavailable or stale, the page shows a warning rather than promising fresh results.

Use responsibly

No estimate guarantees a win, profit, available prize or stock at a store. Rankings are per ticket, not per dollar spent. Prize amounts are gross awards, not profit. Treat any lottery purchase as an expense you may lose. For support and responsible-play information, visit Florida Lottery responsible-play resources.